Geopolitical Instability & State-Collapse Forecasting Unit
Forecasting geopolitical instability and state collapse to enable early engagement and conflict prevention.
Unit Mission
The Geopolitical Instability & State-Collapse Forecasting Unit forecasts geopolitical instability and state collapse — developing and applying quantitative and qualitative models that assess the risk of political instability, governance failure, and state collapse in fragile and conflict-affected states. The unit applies political science, conflict analysis, and forecasting methodology to produce the early warning assessments that enable proactive diplomatic and humanitarian engagement before instability escalates into crisis.
Key Functions
Fragility Assessment
Assessing state fragility and collapse risk — evaluating governance capacity, social cohesion, economic resilience, and security conditions to identify states at risk of instability and collapse.
Instability Forecasting
Forecasting political instability — applying quantitative models and qualitative analysis to project the trajectory of political conditions in fragile states, providing early warning of deteriorating situations.
Early Warning Products
Producing geopolitical early warning products — developing structured assessments that communicate instability risks to decision-makers, enabling proactive diplomatic and humanitarian engagement before crises escalate.
Operational Capabilities
Governance, Intelligence & Global Policy Directorate
Join This Unit
Pacific 7.0 International recruits intelligence analysts, policy researchers, diplomats, legal scholars, and behavioral scientists committed to advancing global governance and international security.