Geopolitical Instability & State-Collapse Forecasting Unit
Forecasting geopolitical instability and state fragility to enable early warning and preventive policy engagement.
Unit Mission
The Geopolitical Instability & State-Collapse Forecasting Unit develops quantitative and qualitative models for forecasting geopolitical instability, state fragility, and conflict risk — providing the early warning intelligence needed for preventive policy engagement before crises escalate. The unit integrates political science, economics, and conflict studies to build multi-dimensional instability assessments that identify at-risk states, model escalation pathways, and inform the preventive diplomacy and development interventions that can arrest deteriorating trajectories.
Key Functions
Fragility Modeling
Developing state fragility models — integrating governance, security, economic, and social indicators to produce composite fragility assessments that identify states at elevated risk of instability and humanitarian crisis.
Early Warning
Operating political instability early warning systems — monitoring leading indicators of instability, detecting deteriorating trajectories, and providing timely alerts that enable preventive engagement before crises become acute.
Preventive Policy
Translating instability forecasts into preventive policy recommendations — identifying leverage points for diplomatic, development, and security interventions that can arrest deteriorating trajectories and prevent conflict escalation.
Operational Capabilities
Environmental, Conservation & Diplomacy Directorate
Join This Unit
Pacific 7.0 International recruits scientists, diplomats, field conservationists, and policy researchers committed to protecting the planet and advancing global environmental security.