Geopolitical Stability & State-Collapse Forecasting Team
Forecasting geopolitical instability and state fragility to enable early warning and preventive engagement before crises escalate.
Research Mission
The Geopolitical Stability & State-Collapse Forecasting Team develops quantitative and qualitative models for forecasting geopolitical instability, state fragility, and the risk of state collapse — providing early warning of deteriorating governance, social cohesion, and institutional capacity before crises escalate into humanitarian emergencies. The team integrates political science, economics, sociology, and conflict studies to build multi-dimensional fragility assessments that identify at-risk states and inform preventive engagement strategies.
Key Research Functions
Fragility Assessment
Developing multi-dimensional state fragility assessments that integrate governance, security, economic, and social indicators — producing composite fragility scores that identify states at elevated risk of instability and humanitarian crisis.
Early Warning Modeling
Building quantitative early warning models that forecast political instability and conflict onset — applying machine learning and statistical methods to large datasets of political, economic, and social indicators to identify deteriorating trajectories.
Preventive Engagement
Translating fragility assessments and early warning outputs into preventive engagement recommendations — identifying leverage points for international intervention, diplomatic engagement, and development programming that can arrest deteriorating trajectories.
Research Capabilities
Directorate of Advanced Research & Applied Sciences
Join This Research Unit
Pacific 7.0 International recruits scientists, engineers, and researchers committed to advancing knowledge in service of global security and humanitarian protection.